Bitcoin crash pre-halving? Stablecoin metric that marked 2019 top flashes warning
The notion of a "Bitcoin halving" typically refers to the Bitcoin block reward halving that occurs approximately every four years. This event reduces the number of new Bitcoins generated in each block by half, which has historically had an impact on Bitcoin's supply dynamics and, subsequently, its price. However, it's important to clarify that Bitcoin's block reward halvings are events that have already taken place in the past and are not predictive of future price movements. When you mention "two key BTC supply metrics" showing conflicting signals regarding a retracement before the Bitcoin halving, it's necessary to understand which specific metrics you're referring to. Metrics related to Bitcoin supply can include factors like the total number of Bitcoins in circulation, the rate of new Bitcoin issuance, and various on-chain data points. If you can provide more details about the specific supply metrics and signals you're referring to, I'd be happy to provide more information and analysis based on that context.
David Becker 
The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is currently experiencing some interesting dynamics, with conflicting signals from key supply metrics:
**1. Stablecoin Supply Rate Oscillator (SSRO):** The SSRO has surged to an all-time high of 4.13, indicating a strong appetite for Bitcoin accumulation on-chain. However, this also suggests that the purchasing power of stablecoins is at a relative all-time low. Historically, such high SSRO levels have preceded retracement periods before Bitcoin halving events.
**2. Reserve Risk (RR) Indicator:** The RR indicator measures risk-reward incentives in relation to the current "HODL bank" and spot Bitcoin price. When confidence is high and the price is low, there's an attractive risk/reward to invest (low Reserve Risk). In contrast, when confidence is low and the price is high, the risk/reward is unattractive (high Reserve Risk).
Despite the record-high SSRO reading, the RR is at multiyear lows at the bottom of the green band. This implies that despite Bitcoin's price sitting at 17-month highs, confidence remains very high in Bitcoin's future price performance. Buying Bitcoin when the RR is at such low levels has historically produced substantial returns.
These signals suggest that long-term Bitcoin holders may be well-positioned for significant gains, especially given that they control an all-time high of the total supply. Additionally, the anticipation of potential multibillion-dollar inflows into a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is further fueling optimism about Bitcoin's future price potential. As a result, it's not surprising that some analysts are making six-figure price predictions for Bitcoin in the post-halving period.
However, it's important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly speculative and volatile, and predictions about its future performance are subject to change based on various factors, including market sentiment, adoption, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions. Traders and investors should exercise caution and conduct their research before making investment decisions.
