The 'Terminal Price' for Bitcoin suggests that the next all-time high for BTC will be at least $110,000.
Based on the on-chain indicator, Bitcoin's historical patterns indicate it could effortlessly reach a six-figure price in the next cycle.
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An on-chain indicator suggests that Bitcoin, currently priced at $37,404, could potentially reach a new all-time high of at least $110,000 in its ongoing bull cycle. This indicator, known as the "Terminal Price," derives estimates based on Bitcoin's on-chain activity, particularly through metrics like "Coin Days Destroyed" (CDD). The Terminal Price signifies a projected peak in Bitcoin's value, and historically, it has been a significant factor at the culmination of each BTC price cycle.
Bitcoin Terminal Price and Balanced Price chart. Source: Look Into Bitcoin
The Terminal Price, a creation by Philip Swift from Look Into Bitcoin, calculates a value that represents long-term BTC price peaks by considering the Transferred Price derived from CDD divided by the existing supply. This indicator has been influential in marking the top of Bitcoin price cycles, although not every all-time high reaches this projected value. Nonetheless, selling Bitcoin when it nears this Terminal Price has been suggested as a prudent strategy.
The previous highs of Bitcoin in 2017 and April 2021 did align with the trendline of the Terminal Price, though the peak in November 2021 fell short of this estimation. Swift recommends that selling near this price point could be a sound approach, with a corresponding "Balanced Price" signaling potential market bottoms during bearish periods.
While the current estimated Terminal Price indicates $110,000, this figure could prove to be conservative should the next all-time high occur later in the subsequent cycle. Moreover, Philip Swift also emphasizes the "Pi Cycle Top" indicator, which utilizes moving averages to forecast long-term highs in Bitcoin, providing potential signals for the next peak with a notice of only a few days. This indicator has been surprisingly accurate in marking previous cycle highs and remains a point of consideration for the ongoing market cycle.
Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/X
