Bitcoin bull market awaits as US faces ‘bear steepener’ — Arthur Hayes
The former CEO of BitMEX suggests that Bitcoin is currently experiencing a 16-year high in 30-year U.S. government bond yields, and the prospect of continued money printing by central banks is virtually guaranteed. This analysis indicates that Bitcoin may be viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation caused by increased money supply and rising bond yields.
David Becker 
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, has suggested that a new Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bull market could be triggered by the actions of the United States government. Hayes pointed to the rapidly increasing U.S. Treasury yields as a potential precursor to a macroeconomic flashpoint.
U.S. Treasury yields have been rising significantly, and Hayes believes that this could lead to a "bear steepener," where long-term interest rates increase faster than short-term rates. He argues that the current steep rise in the 2s30s curve (the difference between the 30-year and two-year yields) and the rise in both long-term and short-term interest rates are putting pressure on the economy. Banks, due to the leverage and non-linear risks in their portfolios, may be forced to sell bonds or pay fixed on interest rate swaps as rates rise. This could lead to more selling, creating a negative impact on bond prices.
As a result, Hayes anticipates a return to massive liquidity injections, reversing the quantitative tightening that has been in effect since late 2021. However, he acknowledges that this process may come with major casualties along the way.
Philip Swift, the creator of statistics resource LookIntoBitcoin, also voiced support for Hayes' prognosis, suggesting that a return to money supply expansion could be the major catalyst for the Bitcoin bull market.
Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to accumulate record-high levels of national debt at a rapid pace. In just one day, the U.S. government added $275 billion to its total debt, highlighting the ongoing fiscal challenges. This situation is observed alongside Bitcoin's price movements, as the cryptocurrency market responds to macroeconomic and financial developments.
The convergence of rising Treasury yields, increasing national debt, and potential implications for the cryptocurrency market underscores the complex interplay between traditional financial markets and digital assets like Bitcoin. It remains to be seen how these factors will affect the cryptocurrency market in the coming months.
