‘This is the trigger’ — Arthur Hayes says it’s time to bet on Bitcoin
The former CEO of BitMEX suggests that Bitcoin is at a critical juncture due to a combination of factors, including rising inflation driven by war. He believes that despite these challenges, there is still a possibility for Bitcoin to reach a price of $1 million.
David Becker 
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $34,619, and the former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, believes that it is at a "trigger" moment that could still lead to a $1 million price for BTC. In a recent blog post titled "The Periphery," Hayes discusses how global wartime inflation, particularly driven by the United States' involvement in conflicts, is a significant factor that could drive Bitcoin and gold prices higher.
Hayes points out that the United States Federal Reserve is facing persistent inflation but has stopped raising interest rates, leading to concerns about an economic "bear steepener." He suggests that the hedging needs of banks and the borrowing needs of the U.S. war machine are intertwined, potentially leading to a lack of safety for investors in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This could cause investors to seek alternatives like gold and, more importantly, Bitcoin, leading to rising prices due to fears of global wartime inflation.
Hayes notes that the recent price increase of Bitcoin, up 15% in a week, followed U.S. President Joe Biden's address regarding the Ukraine and Israel wars, indicating that Bitcoin is already responding to global events and discounting the possibility of future inflation.
He also mentions the concept of "yield curve control" (YCC) and suggests that it could play a role in driving Bitcoin to a $1 million price tag. YCC is a controlled economic policy that is already being implemented in Japan. Hayes believes that the end game of this policy is for the Federal Reserve to fix interest rates at politically expedient levels, essentially revealing that the U.S. Treasury market is not a free market.
As global economic concerns escalate due to the presence of war, prominent figures like billionaire investor Ray Dalio have warned of the possibility of a "World War III" scenario. This, combined with the anticipation of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval for Bitcoin, has led to a 27% price increase for Bitcoin in October and a 100% year-to-date increase.
In summary, Arthur Hayes suggests that Bitcoin is responding to global economic and geopolitical events, and factors like wartime inflation and yield curve control could drive its price to $1 million.
